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09/12/2023
Resource Adequacy and Capacity Procurement: Metrics and Decision Support Analysis
Resource adequacy studies typically use standard metrics such as Loss of...
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02/22/2023
Using infinite server queues with partial information for occupancy prediction
Motivated by demand prediction for the custodial prison population in En...
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01/31/2023
On the Stability of General Bayesian Inference
We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specifi...
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11/14/2022
Scalable Model Selection for Staged Trees: Mean-posterior Clustering and Binary Trees
Several structure-learning algorithms for staged trees, asymmetric exten...
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09/14/2022
Identifying Causal Effects on a Chain Event Graph for Remedial Interventions
To efficiently analyse system reliability, graphical tools such as fault...
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04/11/2022
A Bayesian Decision Support System in Energy Systems Planning
Gaussian Process (GP) emulators are widely used to approximate complex c...
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02/24/2022
Bayesian Model Averaging of Chain Event Graphs for Robust Explanatory Modelling
Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are a widely applicable class of probabilistic...
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01/24/2022
Propagating uncertainty in a network of energy models
Computational models are widely used in decision support for energy syst...
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11/08/2021
A Bayesian Analysis of Migration Pathways using Chain Event Graphs of Agent Based Models
Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are often used to model migration and are incr...
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10/03/2021
Hierarchical Causal Analysis of Natural Languages on a Chain Event Graph
Various graphical models are widely used in reliability to provide a qua...
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04/20/2021
Partial Correlation Graphical LASSO
Standard likelihood penalties to learn Gaussian graphical models are bas...
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01/22/2021
Lexical semantic change for Ancient Greek and Latin
Change and its precondition, variation, are inherent in languages. Over ...
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01/12/2021
Decision Support for COVID-19 Policy Including Poverty Drivers
In this paper we present a multi-attribute decision support framework fo...
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06/29/2020
Propagation for Dynamic Continuous Time Chain Event Graphs
Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are a family of event-based graphical models t...
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06/29/2020
Constructing a Chain Event Graph from a Staged Tree
Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are a recent family of probabilistic graphical...
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04/14/2020
A decision support system for addressing food security in the UK
This paper presents an integrating decision support system to model food...
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02/14/2020
Bayesian Learning of Causal Relationships for System Reliability
Causal theory is now widely developed with many applications to medicine...
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10/10/2019
Bayesian Diagnostics for Chain Event Graphs
Chain event graphs have been established as a practical Bayesian graphic...
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03/13/2019
GASC: Genre-Aware Semantic Change for Ancient Greek
Word meaning changes over time, depending on linguistic and extra-lingui...
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11/21/2018
The Reduced Dynamic Chain Event Graph
In this paper we introduce a new class of probabilistic graphical models...
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11/17/2018
Bayesian Networks, Total Variation and Robustness
Now that Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become widely used, an appreciatio...
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10/22/2018
Properties of an N Time-Slice Dynamic Chain Event Graph
A Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) provides a rich tree-based framework ...
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08/17/2018
An N Time-Slice Dynamic Chain Event Graph
The Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) is able to depict many classes of d...
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07/26/2018
A conditional independence framework for coherent modularized inference
Inference in current domains of application are often complex and requir...
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07/10/2018
Customised Structural Elicitation
Established methods for structural elicitation typically rely on code mo...
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02/26/2018
Principles of Bayesian Inference using General Divergence Criteria
When it is acknowledged that all candidate parameterised statistical mod...
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02/26/2018
Principled Bayesian Minimum Divergence Inference
When it is acknowledged that all candidate parameterised statistical mod...
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04/07/2017
A Graphical method for simplifying Bayesian Games
If the influence diagram (ID) depicting a Bayesian game is common knowle...
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08/02/2016
Directed expected utility networks
A variety of statistical graphical models have been defined to represent...
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07/28/2016
A symbolic algebra for the computation of expected utilities in multiplicative influence diagrams
Influence diagrams provide a compact graphical representation of decisio...
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12/07/2015
Sensitivity analysis, multilinearity and beyond
Sensitivity methods for the analysis of the outputs of discrete Bayesian...
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04/04/2014
Exact Estimation of Multiple Directed Acyclic Graphs
This paper considers the problem of estimating the structure of multiple...
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01/30/2013
On the Geometry of Bayesian Graphical Models with Hidden Variables
In this paper we investigate the geometry of the likelihood of the unkno...
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01/23/2013
Approximate Learning in Complex Dynamic Bayesian Networks
In this paper we extend the work of Smith and Papamichail (1999) and pre...
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06/13/2012