Meta-learning Causal Discovery
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Causal discovery (CD) from time-varying data is important in neuroscience, medicine, and machine learning. Techniques for CD include randomized experiments which are generally unbiased but expensive. It also includes algorithms like regression, matching, and Granger causality, which are only correct under strong assumptions made by human designers. However, as we found in other areas of machine learning, humans are usually not quite right and are usually outperformed by data-driven approaches. Here we test if we can improve causal discovery in a data-driven way. We take a system with a large number of causal components (transistors), the MOS 6502 processor, and meta-learn the causal discovery procedure represented as a neural network. We find that this procedure far outperforms human-designed causal discovery procedures, such as Mutual Information and Granger Causality. We argue that the causality field should consider, where possible, a supervised approach, where CD procedures are learned from large datasets with known causal relations instead of being designed by a human specialist. Our findings promise a new approach toward CD in neural and medical data and for the broader machine learning community.
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