Modelling the Demand and Uncertainty of Low Voltage Networks and the Effect of non-Domestic Consumers
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The increasing use and spread of low carbon technologies are expected to cause new patterns in electric demand and set novel challenges to a distribution network operator (DNO). In this study, we build upon a recently introduced method, called "buddying", which simulates low voltage (LV) networks of both residential and non-domestic (e.g. shops, offices, schools, hospitals, etc.) customers through optimization (via a genetic algorithm) of demands based on limited monitored and customer data. The algorithm assigns a limited but diverse number of monitored households (the "buddies") to the unmonitored customers on a network. We study and compare two algorithms, one where substation monitoring data is available and a second where no substation information is used. Despite the roll out of monitoring equipment at domestic properties and/or substations, less data is available for commercial customers. This study focuses on substations with commercial customers most of which have no monitored `buddy', in which case a profile must be created. Due to the volatile nature of the low voltage networks, uncertainty bounds are crucial for operational purposes. We introduce and demonstrate two techniques for modelling the confidence bounds on the modelled LV networks. The first method uses probabilistic forecast methods based on substation monitoring; the second only uses a simple bootstrap of the sample of monitored customers but has the advantage of not requiring monitoring at the substation. These modelling tools, buddying and uncertainty bounds, can give further insight to a DNO to better plan and manage the network when limited information is available.
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