Multivariate Probabilistic CRPS Learning with an Application to Day-Ahead Electricity Prices
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This paper presents a new method for combining (or aggregating or ensembling) multivariate probabilistic forecasts, taking into account dependencies between quantiles and covariates through a smoothing procedure that allows for online learning. Two smoothing methods are discussed: dimensionality reduction using Basis matrices and penalized smoothing. The new online learning algorithm generalizes the standard CRPS learning framework into multivariate dimensions. It is based on Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA) and yields optimal asymptotic learning properties. We provide an in-depth discussion on possible extensions of the algorithm and several nested cases related to the existing literature on online forecast combination. The methodology is applied to forecasting day-ahead electricity prices, which are 24-dimensional distributional forecasts. The proposed method yields significant improvements over uniform combination in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). We discuss the temporal evolution of the weights and hyperparameters and present the results of reduced versions of the preferred model. A fast C++ implementation of all discussed methods is provided in the R-Package profoc.
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