Prediction diversity and selective attention in the wisdom of crowds
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The wisdom of crowds is the idea that the combination of independent estimates of the magnitude of some quantity yields remarkably accurate predictions, which are better than most individual estimates in the aggregate. It is largely believed that the accuracy of the crowd can be improved by increasing the diversity of the estimates. Here we report the results of three experiments to probe the current understanding of the wisdom of crowds, namely, the estimates of the number of candies in a jar, the length of a paper strip, and the number of pages of a book. In accord with the prediction diversity theorem, the collective estimate proved always to be better than the majority of the individual estimates. However, we find no significant correlation between the prediction diversity and the collective error. In addition, the poor accuracy of the crowd on some experiments lead us to conjecture that its alleged accuracy is most likely an artifice of selective attention.
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