Rethinking Generalisation
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In this paper, we present a new approach to computing the generalisation performance assuming that the distribution of risks, ρ(r), for a learning scenario is known. This allows us to compute the expected error of a learning machine using empirical risk minimisation. We show that it is possible to obtain results for both classification and regression. We show a critical quantity in determining the generalisation performance is the power-law behaviour of ρ(r) around its minimum value. We compute ρ(r) for the case of all Boolean functions and for the perceptron. We start with a simplistic analysis but then do a more formal one later on. We show that the simplistic results are qualitatively correct and provide a good approximation to the actual results if we replace the true training set size with an approximate training set size.
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