Sharp Calibrated Gaussian Processes

02/23/2023
by   Alexandre Capone, et al.
0

While Gaussian processes are a mainstay for various engineering and scientific applications, the uncertainty estimates don't satisfy frequentist guarantees, and can be miscalibrated in practice. State-of-the-art approaches for designing calibrated models rely on inflating the Gaussian process posterior variance, which yields confidence intervals that are potentially too coarse. To remedy this, we present a calibration approach that generates predictive quantiles using a computation inspired by the vanilla Gaussian process posterior variance, but using a different set of hyperparameters, chosen to satisfy an empirical calibration constraint. This results in a calibration approach that is considerably more flexible than existing approaches. Our approach is shown to yield a calibrated model under reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, it outperforms existing approaches not only when employed for calibrated regression, but also to inform the design of Bayesian optimization algorithms.

READ FULL TEXT

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset