Statistical Failure Mechanism Analysis of Earthquakes Revealing Time Relationships
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If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no strong relationship has been shown (refs not prediction). However, earthquakes are basically failures of structured material systems, and when multiple failure mechanisms are present, prediction of failure is strongly inhibited without first separating the mechanisms. Here we show that by separating earthquakes statistically, based on their central tensor moment structure, along lines first suggested by a separation into mechanisms according to depth of the earthquake, a strong indication of temporal association appears. We show this in earthquakes above 200 Km along the pacific ring of fire, with a positive association in time between earthquakes of the same statistical type and a negative association in time between earthquakes of different types. Whether this can reveal either useful mechanistic information to seismologists, or can result in useful forecasts remains to be seen.
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