Surge Routing: Event-informed Multiagent Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Rideshare
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Large events such as conferences, concerts and sports games, often cause surges in demand for ride services that are not captured in average demand patterns, posing unique challenges for routing algorithms. We propose a learning framework for an autonomous fleet of taxis that scrapes event data from the internet to predict and adapt to surges in demand and generates cooperative routing and pickup policies that service a higher number of requests than other routing protocols. We achieve this through a combination of (i) an event processing framework that scrapes the internet for event information and generates dense vector representations that can be used as input features for a neural network that predicts demand; (ii) a two neural network system that predicts hourly demand over the entire map, using these dense vector representations; (iii) a probabilistic approach that leverages locale occupancy schedules to map publicly available demand data over sectors to discretized street intersections; and finally, (iv) a scalable model-based reinforcement learning framework that uses the predicted demand over intersections to anticipate surges and route taxis using one-agent-at-a-time rollout with limited sampling certainty equivalence. We learn routing and pickup policies using real NYC ride share data for 2022 and information for more than 2000 events across 300 unique venues in Manhattan. We test our approach with a fleet of 100 taxis on a map with 38 different sectors (2235 street intersections). Our experimental results demonstrate that our method obtains routing policies that service 6 more requests on average per minute (around 360 more requests per hour) than other model-based RL frameworks and other classical algorithms in operations research when dealing with surge demand conditions.
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