Surrogate Scoring Rules and a Dominant Truth Serum for Information Elicitation
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We study information elicitation without verification (IEWV) and ask the following question: Can we achieve truthfulness in dominant strategy in IEWV? This paper considers two elicitation settings. The first setting is when the mechanism designer has access to a random variable that is a noisy or proxy version of the ground truth, with known biases. The second setting is the standard peer prediction setting where agents' reports are the only source of information that the mechanism designer has. We introduce surrogate scoring rules (SSR) for the first setting, which use the noisy ground truth to evaluate quality of elicited information, and show that SSR achieve truthful elicitation in dominant strategy. Built upon SSR, we develop a multi-task mechanism, dominant truth serum (DTS), to achieve truthful elicitation in dominant strategy when the mechanism designer only has access to agents' reports (the second setting). The method relies on an estimation procedure to accurately estimate the average bias in the reports of other agents. With the accurate estimation, a random peer agent's report serves as a noisy ground truth and SSR can then be applied to achieve truthfulness in dominant strategy. A salient feature of SSR and DTS is that they both quantify the quality or value of information despite lack of ground truth, just as proper scoring rules do for the with verification setting. Our work complements both the strictly proper scoring rule literature by solving the case where the mechanism designer only has access to a noisy or proxy version of the ground truth, and the peer prediction literature by achieving truthful elicitation in dominant strategy.
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