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07/05/2023
Extending the Dixon and Coles model: an application to women's football data
The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles (1997) extends the double Poisson...
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02/21/2022
Bettors' reaction to match dynamics – Evidence from in-game betting
It is still largely unclear to what extent bettors update their prior as...
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11/09/2020
Continuous-time state-space modelling of the hot hand in basketball
We investigate the hot hand phenomenon using data on 110,513 free throws...
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10/28/2020
Maximum approximate likelihood estimation of general continuous-time state-space models
Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysi...
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03/24/2020
Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models
In recent years, data-driven approaches have become a popular tool in a ...
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02/04/2020
A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football
We investigate the potential occurrence of change points - commonly refe...
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11/19/2019
A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the 'hot shoe' in football
Although academic research on the 'hot hand' effect (in particular, in s...
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09/20/2018
Very Highly Skilled Individuals Do Not Choke Under Pressure: Evidence from Professional Darts
Understanding and predicting how individuals perform in high-pressure si...
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03/15/2018