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11/12/2022
Formalizing the presumption of independence
Mathematical proof aims to deliver confident conclusions, but a very sim...
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02/22/2022
No-Regret Learning with Unbounded Losses: The Case of Logarithmic Pooling
For each of T time steps, m experts report probability distributions ove...
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11/05/2021
Agreement Implies Accuracy for Substitutable Signals
Inspired by Aumann's agreement theorem, Scott Aaronson studied the amoun...
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11/04/2021
Are You Smarter Than a Random Expert? The Robust Aggregation of Substitutable Signals
The problem of aggregating expert forecasts is ubiquitous in fields as w...
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09/03/2021
Strictly Proper Contract Functions Can Be Arbitrage-Free
We consider mechanisms for truthfully eliciting probabilistic prediction...
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02/14/2021
From Proper Scoring Rules to Max-Min Optimal Forecast Aggregation
This paper forges a strong connection between two seemingly unrelated fo...
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02/25/2020
Binary Scoring Rules that Incentivize Precision
All proper scoring rules incentivize an expert to predict accurately (re...
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11/24/2018
